Dear friend

I recollect that 3 weeks into this special war machine performance we can take a few moments to pause and think about where nosotros are and where we become from here.

My showtime observation is this: there are, roughly, two main groups of people out there, those who "get it" and those who don't.  In applied terms, this is what this means for me: when I write I am either "preaching to the choir" or I am trying to reach folks who are "unreachable" (beingness polite here).

For the past three weeks, I have tried to deflate the US PSYOP narrative, alongside folks like Andrei Martyanov at Reminiscences of the Future and Bernhard at Moon of Alabama.  My health does not allow me to sustain such a crazy tempo and I need to enter something of a "temporary rest mode" if I desire to avoid being forced into remainder by my body.

Yet I still go a daily deluge of questions from those who did not "go it" and, frankly, I am wearied trying to debunk the same stuff over and over and over once again.

So, i concluding time:

In purely military terms, the flick we see now is simple: the Ukie military equally a strategic instrument basically died in the outset 24 hours.  And then the Russians used a pocket-sized strength to bypass and block main cities.  With some very notable exceptions (Mariupol) they did not endeavour to enter them.  Why?  For 3 crucial reasons:

  1. they did not take the manpower needed (in Mariupol the force correlation is about one:1 when it should really be iii-5:1 in favor of the attacker)
  2. they wanted to kill equally few Ukrainians every bit possible and
  3. they did not desire to flatten cities only to have to pay for their reconstruction.

So where are the rest of the Russian forces and what are they doing?

They are generally in their permanent deployment bases and they are ready for a state of war confronting the United states of america+NATO.

And if you are the type of believes that "the Russians are running out of manpower" ask yourself why the Black Sea Fleet did not use its elite Naval Infantry, amphibious landing adequacy or its firepower (I remind you that all the huge damage done to the NATO base of operations in western Ukraine was just a unmarried salvo from 1 single pocket-size vessel (what the Russian call a "pocket-size missile ship"), probably with one (land or air based) Iskander to add some specific "dial" where needed.  If the Russian were running out of manpower, would she non use the Black Sea Fleet to the max?  Instead, she is keeping information technology almost Odessa, fix to strike if/when needed, non simply at the Ukraine, only at NATO too (ditto for the group of Russian ships in the eastern Mediterranean).

This is why Putin refers to this operation equally a "special military machine operation" and not as a "state of war" or a "combined artillery functioning".

Once again, you either "become information technology" or yous don't.  It's that uncomplicated, actually.

So hither is roughly were we are today (yesterday's Readovka map):

So nosotros are likely to end upward with something looking like this:

And I don't see the point of reporting how nosotros volition get from the elevation map to the project above accident by accident, town past town.

The real question that comes to my mind looking at the projection to a higher place is not "how practise we get there?" but "where practice nosotros go from there once we arrive?".  Correct now this decision time is all the same probably a couple of weeks into the future.

Whatever may be the case, I have decided to stop posting updates every day (sometimes several times a day) and, instead, alternating analyses days and open thread days .

And so from now on, expect analyses simply every 2nd day (unless big events happen).

Side by side, I don't see whatsoever other way to stop the US+Uk+PL to intervene other than by means of a Iskander/Kalibr strike non "but" upon any target in the Ukraine, just besides strikes on whatever NATO facility is central to the current war preparations by NATO, including locations in Poland , Romania or anywhere else in Europe.

I hope that I am wrong and that the The states+Great britain+PL are not as terminally blinded by their hatred of Russia every bit to risk an bodily full calibration war in Europe.

Simply I have to acknowledge that this hope is small and getting smaller past the day.

It is therefore quite possible, perchance even likely, that in the not also afar time to come we will see The states and Russian armed services personnel meeting in combat.  If that happens, not only volition the risks of a fullscale nuclear war go sharply up, just it would identify me personally in an incommunicable situation: I would be a guest of the United states ("Green Menu" – I only have a Swiss Passport) while my land of ethnic origin would exist at war with the USA.

I take therefore taken the post-obit decision: if at that place is a war in Europe, I will continue to comprehend information technology until ane) Russian and Us soldiers meet in battle and/or 2) a nuclear strike happens anywhere.  If we attain either of these points, then this will not simply prove that the Saker blog failed in its principal mission (avoid war) but information technology will also place me personally in an impossible situation.

If either of the two events happen, I will so "freeze" the blog until the war stops.

I don't like to have to take the two decisions in a higher place, in fact I very much regret them both, simply things are speedily getting out of paw and I need to prepare, both the web log and my personal life.

Question: retrieve the Israeli war against Hezbollah in 2006?

Hezbollah won this war past a humongous margin, and the United states+Israel had to surrender to Hezbollah terms.  Not only that, but this state of war made Hezbollah much, much stronger than information technology was earlier.  Yet it began past a miscalculation which Hassan Nasrallah himself admitted: Hezbollah never expected to Israelis to go so far overboard and basically hammer Lebanon with everything they had for over a month.

I see a parallel here.

No, I practise not think that the Russian war machine operation has run into whatever major issues, past and large what happened in these three weeks must be pretty much what the Russian expected.

In economic terms, there is this big debate at present about the Russian gilt and foreign currency reserves which I am not capable of commenting upon since I am not an economist.  I will let much smarter people than I deal with that.

I also recall that the Russians knew in advance what kind of sanctions the West would introduce sooner or afterward, but I think that the Kremlin was taken by surprise at the speed and scope of the sanctions.  How much of a trouble is that?  Well, I by and large favor western sanctions confronting Russia considering they force Russian federation to congenital a sovereign economy and because they de-couple Russia from the institutions controlled by the Empire of Lies.

Here, again, time will tell and much smarter people then I can offer their insights into this.

Withal, I recall that near people in Russia are stunned by what is a full-calibration "hate state of war" on Russia which we can call the "Abolish Russia war".  In essence, the West did throw everything information technology had at Russia short of a overt military aggression and knowing the geniuses in power in the US+U.k.+PL I would not even put it past them to endeavour to fight Russian federation directly.

Then what began as a special military operation to denazify and disarm Banderastan in a preemptive war turned into a global "Cancel Russia" world state of war.

How could I blame folks in Russian federation for not beingness able to imagine the utter suicidal depravity of the western ruling classes when I, who was born in the heart of Europe and lived all my life in the W could not imagine these ruling classes to be then absolutely out of touch with reality?

Again, to be clear, Russians were non "naive" to "trust" the West nearly anything, just they indeed assumed that the ruling form of the Us would non decide to accident upwardly the planet economically and even possibly militarily because it would hurt the interests of the US ruling form.  So if anybody is "dumbshit stupid" it is hardly the Russians, merely rather the folks who rule over the USA (and, therefore, over the EU besides).

There is also this Russian expression: "you should count your chicks in the Fall".  Let'south run into past twelvemonth's finish who was really dumbshit stupid and who will take prevailed.

Now I think that it is time for all of us, myself included, to let go of the thought "no, they can't possibly by THAT delusional" and assume that aye, they are really THAT delusional.

I also see some other parallel: remember how the USA forced Japan into a war and then wrapped itself in the mantle of an innocent victim and declared "this day shall alive in infamy"?

That is exactly what the USA just pulled off in Europe. And the consequences might be simply equally immense.

Simply in that location is a big divergence here: Japan could non meaningfully strike at the continental U.s..  Russia very much can, with both nuclear and conventional weapons.

Here I will only repeat the quote by Putin which I mentioned the day earlier the Russian special military operation: " if a fight is inevitable y'all should strike offset ".  In patently English this ways that if the Russian come to the determination that the The states is engaged in a "Desert Shield" type of functioning (claim to be only defensive while preparing for months for a fullscale ground invasion) then you can exist certain that Russia will strike European union airports, seaports or any other facility used to prepare an assail on Russia.

In fact, if the US/NATO do decide to set on Russia, this will be the terminal, nuclear, end for the western culture as such.  Afterward grand years of genocidal imperialism, one could be forgiven for thinking that this could exist a plumbing fixtures, just, end" in the "chicken coming dwelling house to roost" kind of karmic justice.

Now information technology is in the hands of the US ruling elites.

Frankly, in that location is very little Andrei, Bernhard of myself tin can exercise most that.  I certain have said all I have to say on this topic and, again, some come across it, others don't – and at that place is nothing more I can do to affect this ratio.

The futurity of our planet now depends on whether the traditional western hatred for all things Russian is bigger or smaller than the self-preservation instincts of US ruling course (the Eurolemmings are hopeless).

Merely time volition tell.  All nosotros can exercise now is pray and identify our trust and lives into God's hands.

Okay, these are the things I wanted to communicate to yous all, my friends and readers.  I however hope for the best, merely I have to ready for the worst, and I desire to be fully candid with all of you.

Kind regards

Andrei

The Essential Saker IV: Messianic Narcissism's Agony by a Thousand Cuts

The Essential Saker 4: Messianic Narcissism'due south Agony by a Thousand Cuts

The Essential Saker II

The Essential Saker 3: Chronicling The Tragedy, Farce And Collapse of the Empire in the Era of Mr MAGA